Bitcoin recently faced a downtrend at the $60k level, indicating short-term challenges preceding a fall in 2019 before a downturn. Analyst Benjamin Cowen had already drawn the comparison between 2023 and 2019, preceding Bitcoin’s price rise to $100,000 before the next halving.
The current Bitcoin trend resembles that of 2019, with a peak, a lower high, and a subsequent decline. However, the decline in 2023 has been lower than in 2019. Despite rate cuts in 2019, Bitcoin didn’t recover immediately, suggesting a potentially delayed recovery.
Bitcoin frequently detects economic weakness before the stock market, as evidenced by gold’s early warning of concerns in 2019. According to Cowen, if the Federal Reserve starts lowering interest rates in October, Bitcoin’s downward trend may continue for the remainder of the year.
BTC often detects economic weakness before the stock market, as evidenced in 2019 when gold signaled issues ahead of the stock market. According to Cowen, if the Federal Reserve starts lowering interest rates in October, Bitcoin’s downward trend may continue for the remainder of the year.
Bitcoin’s Impact on Altcoin Trends
Historically, Bitcoin’s downturns have often led to significant declines in altcoin values, with losses reaching up to 70% over 6-9 months. his trend appears to be recurring, as Ethereum and other altcoins are now experiencing notable declines. In the short term, smaller market-cap altcoins seem to be faring better, suffering less than their larger counterparts.
BTC is currently priced at $59.46M, with a mere 0.22% change in its price within 24 hours. The market cap of BTC is at $1.17 trillion, proving that no other cryptocurrency can match it. The value of the trading volumes in 24 hours has every day grown by 11.33%, standing at $36.91 billion with a volume-to-market cap ratio of 3.15%
Nevertheless, an altcoin is currently valued at $0.000268 USD, a steep drop from the peak price of $0.020726 USD. This altcoin has no market cap, similar to a new or emerging coin. Its 24-hour trading volume is just $1.00, indicating minimal market activity.
According to analyst Cowen, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin frequently limit the growth of the altcoin market as a whole, particularly when the price of BTC drops. This suppression can reset overvalued altcoins. Cowen warns that market cycles can be misleading, characterized by lower highs and lower lows until a significant change from the Federal Reserve shifts the landscape.
Although 2024 is expected to be a much milder decline than that experienced in 2019, Cowen warns investors to exercise maximum caution. The market stays alert not to miss the next major rotation that would, for instance, turn the market upside down and change the course of BTC because of Federal Reserve policies.
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